• Top 5 states by tariffs paid due to expiration: California ($287 million), Florida ($98 million), New York ($80 million), Texas ($80 million), Georgia ($61 million)
  
  
• Top 5 states by highest average tariff paid due to expiration: Colorado (12.1%), Maine (11.0%), Wisconsin (9.3%), Montana (9.1%), Utah (9.0%)
  
  
• Top 5 source countries by value of GSP imports: Indonesia ($3.9 billion), Thailand ($3.3 billion), Cambodia ($2.7 billion), Brazil ($2.5 billion), Philippines ($1.9 billion)
  
  
• Top 5 source countries by value of (eventual) tariff savings: Cambodia ($268 million), Indonesia ($218 million), Thailand ($139 million), Philippines ($121 million), Brazil ($94 million)
  
  

Import growth in 2021 was massive. Total U.S. goods imports grew by 21%, while those from GSP countries grew by 35%. Yet “competitive need limitations” (CNLs), which lead to GSP loss for specific products, only grew by 2.6%. As a result, $1.8 billion of the currently eligible imports exceeded the 2021 CNL and another $1.5 billion likely will exceed the 2022 cap based on import levels and trends, putting a huge share of future GSP benefits at risk:

• Top 5 states by share of benefits at risk for exceeding the 2021 CNL: Mississippi (42%), Louisiana (26%), Florida (20%), New York (15%), Virginia (13%)
  
  
• Top 5 states by share of benefits likely at risk from the 2022 CNL: Maine (37%), Colorado (27%), Iowa (27%), Hawaii (19%), Michigan (15%)
  
  

Representatives Stephanie Murphy (D-FL) and Jackie Walorski (R-IN) introduced the bipartisan CNL Update Act (H.R.6171), which would amend the CNLs to grow more in line with historical trends. Not only would the CNL Update Act help preserve GSP for much of that “at risk” trade, it would help restore GSP for some of the $10 billion (!!!) in imports that lost GSP in the past due to product reviews:

• Top 5 states by potential GSP savings increase for products that “should” be restored by H.R.6171: Alaska (84%), South Dakota (72%), Michigan (41%), Maryland (38%), Mississippi (42%)
  
  
• Top 5 states by potential GSP savings increase for products that “may” be restored by H.R.6171: South Dakota (4,565%), Wyoming (218%), Maryland (213%), New York (196%), Minnesota (166%)
  
  

While the CNL Update Act has a chance to “preserve and restore,” there remains considerable down-side risk. The GSP renewal language in the House’s America COMPETES Act not only maintains the current CNL thresholds, but creates a high likelihood of full or partial termination for key GSP supplier countries, particularly Brazil, Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, and Thailand. Loss of GSP due to current CNL rules, combined with loss for those countries, would decimate the program:

• States where at least 90% of current GSP benefits are at risk: Wisconsin (-97%), West Virginia (-96%), Montana (-92%), Utah (-91%)
  
  
• States where at least 80% of current GSP benefits are at risk: Colorado (-88%), Connecticut (-86%), Arkansas (-85%), Hawaii (-84%), Wyoming (-83%), Maine (-83%), Alaska (-82%), Kansas (-82%), Mississippi (-82%), Texas (-81%), Indiana (-81%)
  
  
• States where at least 70% of current GSP benefits are at risk: Nebraska (-79%), Georgia (-79%), North Carolina (-79%), Michigan (-79%), Washington (-78%), Rhode Island (-78%), Nevada (-78%), Illinois (-77%), Alabama (-76%), New Mexico (-76%), California (-76%), Minnesota (-75%), Tennessee (-75%), Virginia (-74%), Massachusetts (-74%), Oklahoma (-74%), Kentucky (-73%), South Dakota (-72%), Florida (-72%), Oregon (-71%)
  
  

This last set of stats shows that GSP “renewal” can’t be the only priority. It must be renewed in a way that doesn’t decimate the program in the next 2-3 years. After all, it’s impossible to “promote development through trade” with a program that covers no trade.

Triad Magnetics manufactures transformers and inductors for American producers of medical equipment, the power grid, renewable energy and transportation systems. It employs 30 workers in California doing design, manufacturing, and distribution. In 2010, Triad Magnetics moved manufacturing of its main product line – about $7 million/year – from China to the Philippines due to GSP benefits. Without GSP, the Philippines is not as competitive.

Triad Magnetics’ history of creating jobs, raising environmental standards, and creating economic opportunities for women is a textbook example of what GSP benefits are meant to promote. As shared by company president Bill Dull:

“When we opened our Philippine factory in 2010 there was a line around the block with applicants. Many Filipinos are forced to work overseas as they can’t find work at home, so moving 1,500 jobs out of China to the Philippines was a very welcome move.

Furthermore, we treat our employees well. We offer transportation, health care, PTO and recreational benefits. The majority of our workers as well as line-leaders, supervisors and management team are women. They are paid equally to men doing the same jobs and are afforded equal advancement opportunities.

Our Philippine factory is ISO14000 which is a family of standards related to environmental management that exists to help organizations (a) minimize how their operations (processes, etc.) negatively affect the environment (i.e. cause adverse changes to air, water, or land); (b) comply with applicable laws, regulations, and other environmentally oriented requirements; and (c) continually improve in the above.“

Perhaps ironically, it is discussions about how to add new provisions on these topics (e.g., environment) that are holding up renewal and undermining this GSP success story.

And expiration impacts are not limited to the Philippines. Triad Magnetics has been forced to delay new hires and investments in California. Its president expressed the feelings of many:

“Working through COVID in a “critical Infrastructure” market has been challenging. The continued delays reinstating GSP simply add to the challenges, stress and frustration that we are already dealing with. Frankly as an ordinary citizen trying to run a business, it’s very hard to understand why it’s taking so long to reinstate GSP knowing that it has bi-partisan support and the last time it was reinstated Congress passed the legislation something like 98% yes to 2% no.” (emphasis added)

GSP expiration is a clear lose-lose outcome (except for some producers in China). Congress must pass a GSP renewal bill ensures companies like Triad Magnetics can create jobs and opportunity in Philippines and the United States. And it must do so as soon as possible to limit the (already significant) damage.

Note: this example came from a new Coalition survey on expiration impacts. It was published with permission. GSP importers are encouraged to take the survey here – no company-specific details will be published without such permission.

GSP benefits have become even more important in recent years since Altus Brands completely stopped buying this product from China due to 25% Section 301 tariffs. In 2020, GSP saved Altus Brands over $25,000 in eliminated tariffs. The company’s imports also further GSP’s development goals: it purchases from a factory that offers benefits and higher pay than other local factories. It’s good for workers in the Philippines and the United States, since the high-quality products command a higher price and help support other Made in the USA product lines.

But GSP expiration threatens all of this. Altus raised prices to cover the $14,000 (and growing) in extra tariffs paid. It has lost sales at home and in export markets (e.g., Canada, Germany, and Russia), which in turn led to reduced purchases from the Philippines.

According to company president Gerand Lemanski, it could get worse yet: “Without renewal of GSP my product is not competitive in the US market and I will have to cease selling this product within a year. That will result in letting one production person go.”

Unfortunately, Congress recently recessed until mid-September. Altus Brands’ experience shows why it must make GSP renewal an immediate priority when it returns.

Note: this example came from a new Coalition survey on expiration impacts. It was published with permission. GSP importers are encouraged to take the survey here – no company-specific details will be published without such permission.

Due to GSP expiration, Ciranda has paid over $209,000 in extra tariffs on imports of tapioca powders and syrups, coconut products, rice syrup and powders from Brazil, Pakistan, Philippines, and Thailand. The need to pass these costs onto customers led sales to fall. Even if tariffs paid (eventually) are refunded, those lost sales can’t be regained. As an employee-owned company, everyone at Ciranda is impacted by those lost sales and profits.

Ciranda is a great example of the kind of trade GSP is meant to promote. Its qualification process includes an in-person visit to every supplier. While on-site, it observes each ingredient’s journey from the field to the processing plant. In addition to evaluating product quality, it surveys working conditions, fair labor practices, and the overall environmental health of the project. In 2020, Ciranda published a book highlighting the farmers around the world growing their product.

By eliminating U.S. tariffs on sustainable food ingredients, GSP helps companies like Ciranda do “more good” for workers and the environment in developing countries and the United States. Their example also highlights the risk of imposing too many eligible criteria on GSP countries for which higher tariffs are the only possible punishment. No matter how well-intentioned a new GSP criterion (e.g., on environment) may be, terminating GSP often hurts those meeting or exceeding even the highest standards. That’s why the Coalition believes Congress should consider changes to mitigate any punitive actions as part of GSP renewal, such as supporting partial (instead of full) terminations and/or creating a mechanism for good actors to retain benefits.

Note: Ciranda’s story came from a new Coalition survey on expiration impacts. GSP importers can take the survey here.

Kouboo sells home decor products that are handmade from natural materials, such as rattan vines. Kouboo was started by Patrice and Joey Gerber with products sourced from the Philippines, and sourcing expanded to Indonesia and Myanmar. The handmade nature of the products provides significant employment opportunities in GSP countries, especially for women weavers in poor, rural areas.

As Kouboo has grown, GSP savings rose dramatically: from a few hundred dollars per month in 2013 to a few thousand dollars per week in 2020. So has the number of women artisans supported by Kouboo’s GSP imports into the United States.

In the first clip, Patrice explains how higher tariffs from GSP expiration, along with global shipping delays and the pandemic, combine to create the “perfect storm” for his business. While Kouboo converted one part-time worker into a full-time worker on January 1 (it’s first non-family member), the impact of higher tariffs plus higher shipping costs forced Kouboo to put plans for another full-time hire on hold.

In the second clip, Patrice provides information on how their products are manufactured, and how GSP/their products provide employment opportunities, especially to rural women. Since men’s agricultural income typically isn’t enough, the women’s income reduces pressure for children to work – improving access to education – as well as pressure to leave the rural areas for urban ones in search of jobs. The unique nature of the products, and limited alternative employment options in the villages, means lost GSP hurts many without even the possibility that someone else could gain.

Kouboo is a great example of how lost GSP hurts companies and workers in both the United States and developing countries. If you’re like Kouboo and harmed by GSP expiration, please add your name to our free GSP supporter list.

No similar linear diaphragm pumps are manufactured in the United States, though competitors in China often try to copy Hiblows design and sell for lower prices. Hiblow’s operations also exemplify GSP’s original development goals: workers at the Philippines factory receive competitive wages, bonuses and family outings throughout the year, and private health insurance benefits. GSP is one tool that helps Hiblow workers in the United States and the Philippines stay competitive in the global market.

GSP benefits have helped Hiblow mitigate Covid-19 impacts, particularly a 500% increase in freight costs. Ocean shipping delays meant Hiblow had to use air freight to get its product American manufacturing customs in time.

If GSP expires, Hiblow will need to recoup $400,000 “from somewhere.” That is likely less money spent with local vendors, for conferences, for marketing and advertising materials and – most importantly for policymakers – by freezing any new hires. That is bad news at a time when there are 10 million fewer American jobs than than there were earlier this year.

Watch Hiblow President Tim Smith explain how “renewing GSP is imperative to us to grow our business and hire more people in 2021 and beyond.”

If you’re a GSP importer, submit your own video testimonial here.

Lost GSP for India and Turkey cost American companies as much as $33 million in extra tariffs in July, including up to $26.5 million in new taxes on imports from India and $6.5 million on imports from Turkey. The impacts of the decisions are clear, as shown in the graph below. Before June 2019, year-over-year GSP rose in 37 straight months.

GSP savings from other countries continued to grow, increasing $18.4 million (30%) from September 2018 to September 2019. Savings on imports from Cambodia grew by $10.9 million, from Indonesia by $4.1 million, from Burma by $2.1 million, and from the Philippines by $1.6 million.

By value, the states with the largest year-over-year savings declines were Florida (-$2.1 million), New Jersey (-$2.1 million), Texas (-$2.1 million), Pennsylvania (-$1.1 million), New York (-$984,000), Michigan (-$955,000), North Carolina (-$878,000), Louisiana (-$605,000), Iowa (-$545,000), and Massachusetts (-$490,000).

Savings for companies in Delaware declined over 90%, driven by lost GSP for India. Savings for companies in Maine declined by 84%, resulting from broader-based declines in imports from Brazil, India, Thailand, etc.

Fifteen states saw GSP savings increase in September. Among those, California (+$3.4 million) accounted for 60% of GSP savings increases.

Lost GSP for India cost American companies an estimated $30.4 million in July, while lost GSP for Turkey cost them another $6.4 million. The impacts of the decisions are clear, as shown in the graph below. Before June, year-over-year GSP rose in 37 straight months.

GSP savings from other countries continued to grow, increasing $11.1 million (18%) from July 2018 to July 2019. Savings on imports from Cambodia grew by $8.1 million, from the Philippines by $2.7 million, and from Indonesia by $1.7 million

But growth from other countries was not able to offset the loss of GSP ineligibility for India and Turkey throughout the country: 41 states plus DC and Puerto Rico saw GSP savings decline from July 2018 to July 2019.

By value, the states with the largest year-over-year savings declines were New Jersey (-$3.4 million), New York (-$3.3 million), Florida (-$2.5 million), Texas (-$2.1 million), Michigan (-$1.3 million), South Carolina (-$1.1 million), Maryland (-$1.0 million), Kentucky (-$976,000), North Carolina (-$858,000), and Pennsylvania (-$852,000).

By percent, the states with the largest year-over-year savings declines were New Mexico (-87%), Louisiana (-78%), Vermont (-75%), Iowa (-72%), and West Virginia (-54%).

Shifting trade from China to countries like India does not appear to be a byproduct of recent actions, but instead one of President Trump’s explicit goals:

And it’s working: GSP saved American companies $105 million in March, an increase of $28 million (36%) from March 2018 and the second highest level on record. In the first quarter of 2019, GSP saved American companies $285 million. That is $63 million more than the first quarter of 2018 – itself a record-shattering year.

Products hit by Section 301 tariffs when imported from China account for 90% of increased GSP imports in 2019. Overall, GSP imports rose by about $760 million, with $672 million coming on products on China Section 301 lists. GSP imports of products on those Section 301 lists increased 19%, while GSP imports of other products increased by just 5%.

As shown last week, imports from China subject to new tariffs are down significantly. The chart below shows countries from which GSP imports of products on China Section 301 lists have increased the most in the first quarter of 2019.

For India, 97% of increased 2019 GSP imports are on the China Section 301 lists. GSP imports on Section 301 lists increased by $193 million (18%), while imports of everything else increased by just $7 million (2%).

Similarly for Turkey, 97% of increased 2019 GSP imports are on the China Section 301 lists. GSP imports on Section 301 lists increased by $40 million (13%), while imports of everything else increased by just $1.2 million (less than 1%).

For the Philippines, GSP imports of products on China 301 lists growth helped offset declining GSP imports of all other products. South Africa, Brazil, and Egypt saw similar increases in Section 301-affected products offset losses of other products.

GSP imports from Indonesia grew *only* twice as much on affected products. Yet even here growth rates are faster for products on the Section 301 lists: GSP imports of products affected by new China tariffs grew by 22%, while imports of other products grew by 15%.

Not only would terminating GSP for India, Turkey, or others under review (Thailand, Indonesia) hurt many American companies and workers that have relied on GSP for years. It also would reduce viable sourcing options for companies looking to buy less from China in response to Section 301 tariffs – thereby undermining the President’s own objectives.

Even before upward revisions, U.S. companies’ tax benefits from GSP showed massive increases from past years: American companies saved nearly $20 million per month more in 2017 because of GSP compared to just two years earlier.

Through the first half of 2018, GSP savings are up an additional 18 percent and on track to crack $1 billion for the year. While Congress renewed GSP through 2020 to give companies the certainty necessary to encourage such growth, the Trump administration has launched a number of country “eligibility reviews” that could raise taxes for American companies that depend on GSP – by a lot.

There are GSP reviews underway for India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Thailand, and Turkey. American companies saved $544 million last year due to GSP for those countries. Collectively, they accounted for 61 percent of GSP savings on imports from all countries.

Given the risk of lost GSP, we strongly encourage companies importing from those countries to sign up for our GSP supporter list and take our review impacts survey, which are both free.

In terms of specific revisions based on the new data, New Jersey saw the biggest jump in savings by value, followed by Florida, California, Georgia, and New York.

Montana saw the biggest jump in GSP savings by percent, followed by Utah, Maine, Florida, and Nevada.

For supplier countries, the largest revision in US savings came on imports from the Philippines, followed by Indonesia, India, Thailand, and Brazil.