• Top 5 states by tariffs paid due to expiration: California ($287 million), Florida ($98 million), New York ($80 million), Texas ($80 million), Georgia ($61 million)
  
  
• Top 5 states by highest average tariff paid due to expiration: Colorado (12.1%), Maine (11.0%), Wisconsin (9.3%), Montana (9.1%), Utah (9.0%)
  
  
• Top 5 source countries by value of GSP imports: Indonesia ($3.9 billion), Thailand ($3.3 billion), Cambodia ($2.7 billion), Brazil ($2.5 billion), Philippines ($1.9 billion)
  
  
• Top 5 source countries by value of (eventual) tariff savings: Cambodia ($268 million), Indonesia ($218 million), Thailand ($139 million), Philippines ($121 million), Brazil ($94 million)
  
  

Import growth in 2021 was massive. Total U.S. goods imports grew by 21%, while those from GSP countries grew by 35%. Yet “competitive need limitations” (CNLs), which lead to GSP loss for specific products, only grew by 2.6%. As a result, $1.8 billion of the currently eligible imports exceeded the 2021 CNL and another $1.5 billion likely will exceed the 2022 cap based on import levels and trends, putting a huge share of future GSP benefits at risk:

• Top 5 states by share of benefits at risk for exceeding the 2021 CNL: Mississippi (42%), Louisiana (26%), Florida (20%), New York (15%), Virginia (13%)
  
  
• Top 5 states by share of benefits likely at risk from the 2022 CNL: Maine (37%), Colorado (27%), Iowa (27%), Hawaii (19%), Michigan (15%)
  
  

Representatives Stephanie Murphy (D-FL) and Jackie Walorski (R-IN) introduced the bipartisan CNL Update Act (H.R.6171), which would amend the CNLs to grow more in line with historical trends. Not only would the CNL Update Act help preserve GSP for much of that “at risk” trade, it would help restore GSP for some of the $10 billion (!!!) in imports that lost GSP in the past due to product reviews:

• Top 5 states by potential GSP savings increase for products that “should” be restored by H.R.6171: Alaska (84%), South Dakota (72%), Michigan (41%), Maryland (38%), Mississippi (42%)
  
  
• Top 5 states by potential GSP savings increase for products that “may” be restored by H.R.6171: South Dakota (4,565%), Wyoming (218%), Maryland (213%), New York (196%), Minnesota (166%)
  
  

While the CNL Update Act has a chance to “preserve and restore,” there remains considerable down-side risk. The GSP renewal language in the House’s America COMPETES Act not only maintains the current CNL thresholds, but creates a high likelihood of full or partial termination for key GSP supplier countries, particularly Brazil, Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, and Thailand. Loss of GSP due to current CNL rules, combined with loss for those countries, would decimate the program:

• States where at least 90% of current GSP benefits are at risk: Wisconsin (-97%), West Virginia (-96%), Montana (-92%), Utah (-91%)
  
  
• States where at least 80% of current GSP benefits are at risk: Colorado (-88%), Connecticut (-86%), Arkansas (-85%), Hawaii (-84%), Wyoming (-83%), Maine (-83%), Alaska (-82%), Kansas (-82%), Mississippi (-82%), Texas (-81%), Indiana (-81%)
  
  
• States where at least 70% of current GSP benefits are at risk: Nebraska (-79%), Georgia (-79%), North Carolina (-79%), Michigan (-79%), Washington (-78%), Rhode Island (-78%), Nevada (-78%), Illinois (-77%), Alabama (-76%), New Mexico (-76%), California (-76%), Minnesota (-75%), Tennessee (-75%), Virginia (-74%), Massachusetts (-74%), Oklahoma (-74%), Kentucky (-73%), South Dakota (-72%), Florida (-72%), Oregon (-71%)
  
  

This last set of stats shows that GSP “renewal” can’t be the only priority. It must be renewed in a way that doesn’t decimate the program in the next 2-3 years. After all, it’s impossible to “promote development through trade” with a program that covers no trade.

The products facing the most new tariffs vary greatly by state:

• In Florida, roses faced more than $1.8 million in new tariffs due to GSP expiration in the run-up to Valentine’s Day.
• In New York, gold jewelry faced more than $1 million in new tariffs.
• In Louisiana, over $600,000 in tariffs were paid on steel-making materials (likely by a company around the Port of New Orleans for distribution throughout the country).
• In Massachusetts, over $200,000 in tariffs were paid on leather sports gloves.
• In Pennsylvania over $160,000 were paid for rubber gloves. They were also the top products for tariffs faced in Connecticut, Mississippi, and Minnesota. Notably, while GSP countries face new tariffs, identical products from China continue to receive a Section 301 tariff waiver for public health reasons.

The $70 million in tariffs paid is a conservative estimate, and the real figure likely is millions of dollars more. Why? Estimates only capture products that continued to claim GSP despite expiration. Yet for numerous products GSP claims fell dramatically while imports continued or even grew. For example, more than $11 million of road wheels from Thailand (88%) were imported in January that didn’t claim GSP. Just 0.4% of those same imports didn’t claim GSP in January 2020. Camshafts and gelatin from Brazil, guitars from Indonesia, and bicycles from Cambodia similarly saw large values of unclaimed GSP imports in January 2021 when nearly all such imports claimed GSP in January 2020.

GSP expiration is already costing American jobs and raising prices for American companies that need inputs and consumers that purchase finished goods. It is critical that Congress renew GSP – with refunds for tariffs paid – as soon as possible. To help the Coalition for GSP educate policymakers on who is hurt by expiration (and how), companies are strongly encouraged to:

• write their lawmakers about GSP renewal with our Contact Congress tool
• join the Coalition for GSP
• add their name to the free GSP supporter list
• answer our very short survey on GSP expiration impacts to date

Dear Legislators,                                                                                                           

My name is Nina Cooper and my company, Nina Designs, has been working to improve the lives of women in Indonesia and Thailand for over 30 years by providing secure jobs with benefits, fair wages and equal opportunity for advancement. Our company produces silver jewelry and jewelry making supplies.

https://www.ninadesigns.com/about-us/fair-trade

The GSP is a key factor in our ability to grow our company over the years and provide opportunities for women to thrive.  As you will see, their jobs in silver production have become a lifeline for extended families during the pandemic. Below you will find biographical details of three women who work at our production facility in Bali so that you can see how the impact of the GSP plays out over time.

Our Nina Designs community includes not only the wonderful artisans who craft our products but over 1,000 women jewelry designers in the USA who incorporate our silver charms and findings into their own jewelry. Most of these women work from their homes while raising children and homeschooling them during the pandemic. We also have 12 women working in California to keep our company running smoothly. They design and distribute our beautiful silver products. Finally, we have supported women artisans internationally through our microloan program which has lent over $200,000 to over 700 women in 30 countries. This complex and hard earned ecosystem of mutual support is in jeopardy unless you vote to renew the GSP.

I entreat Congress to reinstate the GSP so that my company can continue empowering women around the world.

“After graduating high school, I started work at Jani Silver 24 years ago as a silver smith because I loved the world of Fashion, especially jewelry. After work, in my free time, I used to teach myself English and computer. One day I asked my boss, Ibu Janet, if I could change to a position in the office. She explained that as I was such a productive smith, I would earn more doing that than data entry. I explained that I felt one day I could reach a senior management position if I was given the opportunity and then I would earn more. She laughed because I was so enthusiastic. I felt that I could combine my silversmithing knowledge with good management systems and when that proved to be true, I was so happy!

My husband, parents and my children all support me and my work. My salary supports not only my own family, but also my extended family.  Since I started here, I married and had 2 children. I was extremely lucky that our company has a policy of 3 months paid maternity leave, or 6 months leave on 50% salary. During the Covid Pandemic, each staff member has received food assistance. I share mine with people in my village who don’t have any income now. I am very grateful that I was given opportunities to advance in my career.  For several years I was a Materials / Logistics Planner and then Production Planner. Now I am the General Manager!  This was beyond my wildest dreams when I started as a silver smith.”

“I have really loved working here for the past 19 years. The owner and management team are good people who really care about the staff.  The income from my silver-smithing work is a huge help for all my family, including my parents in law, especially now that my husband lost his tourism related job.

We borrowed money (at 24% p/a) to build workers housing but now most people don’t have a job so they cannot afford to rent and just stay with their family in their village. So we also opened a small kiosk at the front of our house selling coffee, noodles, and farming supplies like chicken feed etc.

On my salary we can still eat well (but not as much meat as before) and educate our two children. Without my job, my family would be in a very difficult situation. The company pays the BPJS health insurance premiums that covers my whole family’s medical expenses. It also paid me twice for 3 months maternity leave.”

“I have worked here since I left school 22 years ago. I’ve always felt a strong sense of family both between me and my work mates and even between the management. Perhaps the most important thing is that with my salary, I am able to cover the living costs of my family, including my parents and pay for my two children’s schooling.  My husband used to work in tourism but since the Covid pandemic began he has had no work. I am very grateful for my job.”

Kouboo sells home decor products that are handmade from natural materials, such as rattan vines. Kouboo was started by Patrice and Joey Gerber with products sourced from the Philippines, and sourcing expanded to Indonesia and Myanmar. The handmade nature of the products provides significant employment opportunities in GSP countries, especially for women weavers in poor, rural areas.

As Kouboo has grown, GSP savings rose dramatically: from a few hundred dollars per month in 2013 to a few thousand dollars per week in 2020. So has the number of women artisans supported by Kouboo’s GSP imports into the United States.

In the first clip, Patrice explains how higher tariffs from GSP expiration, along with global shipping delays and the pandemic, combine to create the “perfect storm” for his business. While Kouboo converted one part-time worker into a full-time worker on January 1 (it’s first non-family member), the impact of higher tariffs plus higher shipping costs forced Kouboo to put plans for another full-time hire on hold.

In the second clip, Patrice provides information on how their products are manufactured, and how GSP/their products provide employment opportunities, especially to rural women. Since men’s agricultural income typically isn’t enough, the women’s income reduces pressure for children to work – improving access to education – as well as pressure to leave the rural areas for urban ones in search of jobs. The unique nature of the products, and limited alternative employment options in the villages, means lost GSP hurts many without even the possibility that someone else could gain.

Kouboo is a great example of how lost GSP hurts companies and workers in both the United States and developing countries. If you’re like Kouboo and harmed by GSP expiration, please add your name to our free GSP supporter list.

The estimate is based on an analysis of GSP imports and tariff savings for products flagged in the USITC’s recent report COVID-19 Related Goods: U.S. Imports and Tariffs, which was requested by House Ways and Means Chairman Richard Neal and Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley. This is a narrow definition that likely discounts savings on a wide range of indirectly-related products, as made clear by responses to the Coalition for GSP’s Covid-19 survey (take the survey here, see results to date here).

Tim Smith, President of HIBLOW USA in Saline, Michigan, reported “98% of the air pumps we sell to American OEM’s for medical devices come from the Philippines.” Specific medical applications for HIBLOW’s pumps include respiratory devices, bariatric air mattresses, and immunity/ blood examination equipment. GSP eliminated several million in tariffs on air pumps in 2019, but the pumps themselves are not considered medical products in the USITC report.

Another respondent expects increases in their imports of acrylic plastics from Indonesia and Thailand in 2020. The plastics are used to make sneeze guards for supermarkets and retail locations, which are in high demand due to Covid-19. But again, acrylics are not really “medical” products and do not appear on the USITC list. GSP eliminated several million in tariffs on acrylic plastics in 2019.

The Covid-related product list also shows the harm from seemingly unrelated GSP decisions by the Administration.

GSP would have eliminated $31 million in tariffs in 2019 on the Covid-19 products if the Administration had not terminated eligibility for India and Turkey. Due to the decisions, American companies paid those $7 million in tariffs.

More recently, the Administration suspended GSP benefits for about 1/3 of imports from Thailand, including products on the USITC list such as safety goggles and textile articles. The decision went ahead despite warnings that the suspension list contained products related to Covid-19 response.

That’s right: in the middle of a pandemic the Administration chose to impose new tariffs on products deemed necessary to fight the pandemic.

Looking only at products still eligible for GSP today (i.e., no savings for products from India, Turkey, or on the Thailand partial suspension list), GSP savings for Covid-19 related products in drops to $17 million. Obviously the Administration did not eliminate GSP benefits with the intent of adding $14 million in tariffs annually to Covid-19 related products, but that is the practical impact of their actions.

If Congress wants to promote a cost-effective response to Covid-19, it should immediately extend GSP’s authorization and push to restore benefits that have been lost over the last year.

Lost GSP for India and Turkey cost American companies as much as $33 million in extra tariffs in July, including up to $26.5 million in new taxes on imports from India and $6.5 million on imports from Turkey. The impacts of the decisions are clear, as shown in the graph below. Before June 2019, year-over-year GSP rose in 37 straight months.

GSP savings from other countries continued to grow, increasing $18.4 million (30%) from September 2018 to September 2019. Savings on imports from Cambodia grew by $10.9 million, from Indonesia by $4.1 million, from Burma by $2.1 million, and from the Philippines by $1.6 million.

By value, the states with the largest year-over-year savings declines were Florida (-$2.1 million), New Jersey (-$2.1 million), Texas (-$2.1 million), Pennsylvania (-$1.1 million), New York (-$984,000), Michigan (-$955,000), North Carolina (-$878,000), Louisiana (-$605,000), Iowa (-$545,000), and Massachusetts (-$490,000).

Savings for companies in Delaware declined over 90%, driven by lost GSP for India. Savings for companies in Maine declined by 84%, resulting from broader-based declines in imports from Brazil, India, Thailand, etc.

Fifteen states saw GSP savings increase in September. Among those, California (+$3.4 million) accounted for 60% of GSP savings increases.

Lost GSP for India cost American companies an estimated $30.4 million in July, while lost GSP for Turkey cost them another $6.4 million. The impacts of the decisions are clear, as shown in the graph below. Before June, year-over-year GSP rose in 37 straight months.

GSP savings from other countries continued to grow, increasing $11.1 million (18%) from July 2018 to July 2019. Savings on imports from Cambodia grew by $8.1 million, from the Philippines by $2.7 million, and from Indonesia by $1.7 million

But growth from other countries was not able to offset the loss of GSP ineligibility for India and Turkey throughout the country: 41 states plus DC and Puerto Rico saw GSP savings decline from July 2018 to July 2019.

By value, the states with the largest year-over-year savings declines were New Jersey (-$3.4 million), New York (-$3.3 million), Florida (-$2.5 million), Texas (-$2.1 million), Michigan (-$1.3 million), South Carolina (-$1.1 million), Maryland (-$1.0 million), Kentucky (-$976,000), North Carolina (-$858,000), and Pennsylvania (-$852,000).

By percent, the states with the largest year-over-year savings declines were New Mexico (-87%), Louisiana (-78%), Vermont (-75%), Iowa (-72%), and West Virginia (-54%).

The impacts of the India and Turkey decisions are clear, as shown in the graph below. Year-over-year GSP savings regularly were growing by $10+ million per month. In fact, June marked the first time since April 2016 (37 months) that year-over-year GSP savings declined. The $15 million year-over-year drop was the largest decline in GSP savings since the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

GSP savings from other countries continued to grow, increasing $12.5 million (23%) from June 2018 to June 2019. Savings on imports from Cambodia grew by $7.3 million, from Indonesia by $3.0 million, from Thailand by $1.6 million, and from Burma by $1.3 million.

But growth from other countries was not able to offset the loss of GSP ineligibility for India and Turkey throughout the country: 39 states plus DC and Puerto saw GSP savings decline from June 2018 to June 2018.

By value, the states with the largest year-over-year savings declines were New Jersey (-$4.1 million), Florida (-$3.6 million), Texas (-$2.0 million), New York (-$1.2 million), Illinois (-$1.1 million), Louisiana (-$1.0 million), Michigan (-$942,000), North Carolina (-$882,000), Georgia (-$716,000), and South Carolina (-$512,000).

By percent, the states with the largest year-over-year savings declines were Louisiana (-88%), Nebraska (-82%), Vermont (-76%), Wyoming (-71%), Minnesota (-71%), Mississippi (-68%), New Mexico (-65%), Iowa (-62%), Arkansas (-60%), and Idaho (-54%).

In many of these states, declines were wholly attributable to lost GSP for India and Turkey, leaving little chance that savings will bounce back in July.

Shifting trade from China to countries like India does not appear to be a byproduct of recent actions, but instead one of President Trump’s explicit goals:

And it’s working: GSP saved American companies $105 million in March, an increase of $28 million (36%) from March 2018 and the second highest level on record. In the first quarter of 2019, GSP saved American companies $285 million. That is $63 million more than the first quarter of 2018 – itself a record-shattering year.

Products hit by Section 301 tariffs when imported from China account for 90% of increased GSP imports in 2019. Overall, GSP imports rose by about $760 million, with $672 million coming on products on China Section 301 lists. GSP imports of products on those Section 301 lists increased 19%, while GSP imports of other products increased by just 5%.

As shown last week, imports from China subject to new tariffs are down significantly. The chart below shows countries from which GSP imports of products on China Section 301 lists have increased the most in the first quarter of 2019.

For India, 97% of increased 2019 GSP imports are on the China Section 301 lists. GSP imports on Section 301 lists increased by $193 million (18%), while imports of everything else increased by just $7 million (2%).

Similarly for Turkey, 97% of increased 2019 GSP imports are on the China Section 301 lists. GSP imports on Section 301 lists increased by $40 million (13%), while imports of everything else increased by just $1.2 million (less than 1%).

For the Philippines, GSP imports of products on China 301 lists growth helped offset declining GSP imports of all other products. South Africa, Brazil, and Egypt saw similar increases in Section 301-affected products offset losses of other products.

GSP imports from Indonesia grew *only* twice as much on affected products. Yet even here growth rates are faster for products on the Section 301 lists: GSP imports of products affected by new China tariffs grew by 22%, while imports of other products grew by 15%.

Not only would terminating GSP for India, Turkey, or others under review (Thailand, Indonesia) hurt many American companies and workers that have relied on GSP for years. It also would reduce viable sourcing options for companies looking to buy less from China in response to Section 301 tariffs – thereby undermining the President’s own objectives.

Despite overwhelming congressional support for GSP renewal in 2018, the Trump administration has taken actions that will gut GSP benefits for many American companies. Last week, USTR announced its intent to terminate GSP benefits for India and Turkey.

[Given the risks to those countries and others – companies importing under GSP are strongly encouraged to add their name to our free GSP supporter list]

Imports from India and Turkey accounted for over $330 million of those tax savings for American companies in 2018 – and there could be more bad news to come. There are “pending reviews” for other major GSP suppliers such as Indonesia and Thailand that accounted for over $310 million in GSP savings last year. (Decisions could be announced at any time.) As such, less than 40% of GSP benefits came on products where there is no an immediate risk of losing GSP.

For many states, the situation is even more dire: India and Turkey combined to account for more than 60% of GSP savings for companies in Nebraska (77%), New Mexico (70%), North Dakota (64%), Missouri (64%), Iowa (63%), Delaware (63%), and Oklahoma (61%). House Members from those states voted 25-0 in support of the 2018 GSP renewal bill (2 were not present), but their reauthorization support could be undermined by the Admistration’s actions.

When you include countries under review, 43 states (!) had at least half of all GSP savings in 2018 come from countries at risk of losing GSP. In addition to states listed above, over 80% of GSP savings are at risk for companies in Maine (87%), Tennessee (85%), Mississippi (84%), Alaska (83%), and Minnesota (81%). Again, there was unanimous support among voting House Members from those states for the 2018 reauthorization bill.